A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
