Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
